Is 31% the best that the Republicans can hope to achieve in a straw poll?
While I do not think Romney will ultimately be the Republican nominee, 31% in a field of 7 candidates (am not counting the three that did not seriously contest the straw poll) is a pretty good result.
Obviously the decline from the 1999 straw poll should be a warning sign to Republicans about how much influence they have lost in the Midwest (if the results from the 2006 election were not warning enough). There are several states which went Republican or were close in 2004 that will probably go solidly Democrat this time around unless the Republican nominee can distance himself from Bush and Stephens.
Ron Paul for 2012 - How likely is it, now that he has received 40% of the votes in a straw poll?
Still not very likely, I'm afraid. His "Hands Off" philosophy of government is still pretty much at odds with the majority of Republicans, who seem to desire a more activist conservatism.
I like what he says in theory; but I suspect it would be particularly difficult to implement in the current political climate.
Why does the AOL straw poll showing Barack Obama getting his butt kicked?
While the AOL poll is unscientific, in this case I would trust it just as much as (if not more than) the media polls.
This race is being portrayed as a referendum on racism in America. If anyone says they are voting against Obama, others will wonder if it's for racial reasons. When a pollster asks someone who they are voting for, there is a certain segment of society (I don't know how large) that will lie and say they are voting for Obama, just because they don't want to be perceived as racist. This will be especially true if the pollster is African American. So I believe that the media polls will be skewed toward Obama.
Now, let's look at the AOL poll. It's anonymous. People can vote for who they want in this poll without worrying about what the pollster will think of them.
I admit that 28% seems low to me. This may have to do with other biases, such as white collar workers having access to computers at work are more likely to vote Republican.
So, to answer your question. I think they are both wrong. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
i thought a straw poll is like when you have a hand full of straws, and they have all differnet sizes but you dont know that until you pick the straws.... well other people will pick from your hand.. to see who has the shortest straw.. and the one who has the shortest straw has to go first.. or lost... etc...
or is that pulling straws?!
edit: straw poll: A straw poll or straw vote is a vote with nonbinding results. Straw polls provide important interactive dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation. In meetings subject to rules of order, impromptu straw polls often are taken to see if there is enough support for an idea to devote more meeting time to it, and (when not a secret ballot) for the attendees to see who is on which side of a question. However, Robert's Rules of Order prohibits straw polls, calling them "meaningless and dilatory". Among political bodies, straw polls often are scheduled for events at which many people interested in the polling question can be expected to vote. Sometimes polls conducted without ordinary voting controls in place (i.e., on an honor system, such as in online polls) are also called "straw polls".
What significance does the CPAC Straw Poll actually hold in the electoral process?
It's irrelevant. It only polls self-identified conservatives - those wonderful folks who still think GW Bush did a fine job.
On the other hand, it's bad news for Romney, who has won several of these straw polls in the past.
BTW, a "straw poll" means an opinion poll that has no nominating or elective powers.
I have seen this too and it makes me excited as this is going to be a very dramatic election
AOL is a big company and I don't know if they are that
impartial but if its true then the Obama people are in big
trouble as McCain has hardly campaigned and Obama about bust a gut fighting with Hilary..and then he had to buy of the Clifton's
It will be up to the candidates gettinga good VEEP and Obama should stay away from flip floping so much..
McCain is doing great for a ol'white guy who is tied to George Walker Bush..the legacy factor..good luck everyone